Market Analysis

It's another brutal day in the bond market.  Our post from earlier this am provided a link to a Reuter's article about the the beating bond markets around the world are taking.  This morning is just a continuation of the deterioration.  This morning 1st Q GDP was revised upward, which actually was expected.  However, investors are also wringing their hands over Dow Chemical's announcement yesterday that they were increasing prices on all products up to 20% beginning June 1.  Also, yesterday, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Minneapolis Fed Presdent Gary Stern both gave speeches that emphasized that the Federal Reserve is ready to act sooner rather than later if inflation does not abate.  Tomorrow's PCE Index, considered one of the Fed's favorite measures of inflation at the consumer level, will be all the more important now.  A "hot" number showing inflation seeping from wholesalers to consumers could cause further damage to a bond market that has become dominated by sellers.  A "cold" number also may not provide the improvement we are hoping for if investors view it as a look in the rear view mirror and focus more on what prices are doing now and in the near future.  Working in the favor of rates stabilizing though is technical data which shows that we have reached a price level where bonds have become very attractive to buyers.  It is yet to be seen though if the buyers come back into the market with enough strength to push back on rates which have increased by .375% this week.

Posted by Matthew Breston on May 29th, 2008 10:36 AMPost a Comment (0)

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