Market Analysis

Bonds are better today on investor fears about the US economy entering a 2nd recession.  Bond investors are betting (at least today) that everything the Federal Reserve can throw at the economy will not work to stimulate it.  The Administration looks at the same headlines we do.  It will be very interesting to see what approach they take in the very short term to try to get in front of current sentiment. 

In economic news, August Personal Incomes were down .1% vs expectations for a .1% increase.  Personal Spending was up .2% which matched expectations.  The Core PCE Index, a measure of inflation at the consumer level excluding food and energy, was up .1% vs expectations for a .2% increase.  The September Chicago PMI (purchasing manager's index) came in at 60.4 which was better than the 54.0 expected.  The final September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 59.4 vs expectations for a 57.0 reading.