Market Analysis

Bond markets continue to improve.  Stocks are mixed with the Dow down 50 points and NASDAQ up slightly.  In economic news, Initial Jobless claims for the week ended 4/30 came in at 474,000 which was much higher than expectations for a 400,000 figure.  Continuing Claims for the week ended 4/23 came in at 3.733 million which was higher than the expected 3.638 million figure.  Investors are now pricing in a worse than expected April Non Farm Payroll report tomorrow.  Analysts had been expecting job growth of 185,000.

What is interesting is that if one plays out the doomsday scenario wherein the US economic recovery stalls, the interest rate picture gets very dicey as our ability to grow ourselves out of the deficit becomes more difficult.  The "market is always right" in the short term but often very wrong in the long term.  We may be at one of these periods where the market is very wrong on the interest rate outlook.  Now is probably a great time to take advantage of current rates.