Market Analysis

Bonds opened slightly worse today. Stocks are also down slightly. Markets are watching to see what comes next out of the European Union debt crisis. This morning’s headlines include a speech by German Chancellor Merkel calling for a tighter knit European Union. Those predicting a Euro zone break up could possibly get just the opposite – a stronger European Union forged from the fire of crisis. Whether Merkel and French Prime Minister Sarkosy can use this crisis towards strengthening the European Union will be the true test of their legacies. In the US, the clock keeps ticking towards the Nov 23^rd deadline for the Debt Committee in Congress to announce whether they have struck a deal for long term deficit reduction.   It continues to be very interesting how little attention in the media this deadline and the options being considered by the Committee are getting. 

This week’s economic calendar will provide additional insight into whether the growth from the 3^rd Qtr is continuing into the 4^th Qtr.

Below is a recap of this week’s economic calendar:

Monday, Nov 14 – economic calendar vacant

Tuesday, Nov 15

• October Producer Price Index (PPI) expected down .2% vs up .8% in Sept. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) expected up .1% vs up .2% in September.
• October Retail Sales – expected up .4% vs up 1.1% in September. Retail Sales-ex Auto (without auto) expected up .2% vs up .6% in September.
• November Empire (NY) Manufacturing Index – expected -.8 vs -8.48 in October.
• September Business Inventories – expected up .2% vs up .5% in August

Wednesday, Nov 16

• October Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected unchanged vs up .3% in Sept. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) expected up .1% vs up .1% in September.
• October Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization – Production expected up .4% vs up .2% in September. Capacity Utilization expected at 77.6% vs 77.4% in September.

Thursday, Nov 17

• Initial Jobless Claims week ended 11/12 – expected 400,000 vs 390,000 prior week
• October Housing Starts & Building Permits – Starts expected annualized pace of 604,000 vs pace of 658,000 in September. Permits expected annualized pace of 604,000 vs pace of 594,000 in September.
• November Philadelphia Fed Index – expected 6.8 reading vs 8.7 reading in October.

Friday, Nov 18

• October Leading Indicators – expected up .6% vs up .2% in September.