Market Analysis

US Treasury bonds are slightly improved today but mortgage backed securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are relatively flat. Stocks are down but are improving in the afternoon from the morning low’s. In afternoon trading the Dow moved back up over the 12,000 mark after being down over 200 points in morning tradingEquity investors are spooked by warnings from Fitch Ratings regarding short term economic activity in Europe. Analysts will be looking at US November Retail Sales data released Tuesday for signs of what is occurring in the US. Early reports seem to indicate that November’s retail sales should show improvement. ComScore, a company that compiles internet traffic data, reported that online holiday sales from Nov 1 to Dec 9 were up 15% from the same period last year.

Below is a recap of this week’s economic calendar:

Monday, Dec 12 – no key reports

Tuesday, Dec 13

• November Retail Sales – expected up .6% vs up .5% in October. Excluding the automotive segment expected up .5% vs up .6% in October.
• Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting – expected no change to short term rates

Wednesday, Dec 14 – no key reports

Thursday, Dec 15

• Initial Jobless Claims week ended 12/10 – expected 390,000 vs 381,000 the prior week
• November Producer Price Index (PPI) – expected up .1% vs down .3% in October. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) expected up .1% vs unchanged in October.
• December Empire (NY) Manufacturing Index – expected 3.0 reading vs .61 reading in November
• December Philadelphia Fed Index – expected 4.5 reading vs 3.60 reading in November
• November Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Production expected up .2% vs up .7% in October. Capacity Utilization expected unchanged at 77.8%.

Friday, Dec 16

• November Consumer Price Index (CPI) – expected up .1% vs down .1% in October. Core CPI expected up .1% vs up .1% in October.