Market Analysis

Bond markets are fairly flat with a slight positive bias in early morning trading. This week starts light in terms of economic data and then picks up beginning on Wednesday.

Below is a recap of the releases from this week’s economic calendar:

Monday, April 12, 2010

• No key data releases

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

• February Trade Balance – expectations are for a $39.0 Billion trade gap for February, up from $37.3 Billion in January

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

• March Consumer Price Index (CPI) – the market expects the CPI to be up .1% vs 0% in February. The Core Rate, excluding food and energy, is expected to also be up .1% vs a .1% increase in February.
• March Retail Sales – the market expects an increase of 1.1% vs a .3% increase in February. Excluding the auto component, the market expects a .5% increase vs a .8% increase in February.
• February Business Inventories – the market expects a .3% increase vs 0% in January.
• April Federal Reserve Beige Book - The compilation of economic reports from all 12 Federal Reserve districts is expected to show economic activity picking up but continue to show a challenging employment picture.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

• Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ended 4/10/10 – expected down 20,000
• Continuing Jobless Claims for the Week Ended 4/3/10 – expected up 50,000
• March Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Production expected up .7% vs a .1% increase in February. Capacity utilization expected at 73.3% vs 72.7% in February.
• April Philadelphia Fed – this regional business conditions index is expected to improve to a reading of 20.0 from 18.9 in March.

Friday, April 16, 2010

• March Building Permits and Housing Starts – building permits expected to decrease to an annualized past of 626,000 units from 637,000 units in February. Building starts expected to increase to an annualized pace of 610,000 from 575,000 units in February
• April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (initial estimate) - expected reading of 75.0 vs 73.6 in March.