Market Analysis

Despite a mortgage market friendly Consumer Price Index (CPI) that came in lower than expected, the bond market has barely nudged upward in price / lower in yield.  There appear to be a couple of reasons for this.  First, the Bank of England made comments earlier today that were very pessimistic on the inflation front which led investors to believe that rates woud be moving higher in England.  Rates moving higher in other countries while staying flat here devalues the dollar, as investors move money to other currencies where they can earn a higher rate.  Lower demand for dollar denominated assets causes the value to fall.  Also, investors appear to be paying more attention to the Fed Speak yesterday from a number of regional Fed Bank Presidents regarding a shift in the Fed from lowering rates to identifying the right time to begin raising them to stem inflation.  The Fed Speak yesterday coupled with stronger April retail sales that suggest the economy, outside of the housing sector, is not as bad off as the media is portraying it is causing the stock market to improve and the bond market to stay flat on a day when normally one would expect bonds to rally.

Posted by Matthew Breston on May 14th, 2008 10:31 AMPost a Comment (0)

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