Market Analysis

The market continues to deteriorate this morning as the jobless claims for the week ended 5/31 were lower (less new people looking for work) than anticipated.  The overall jobless figures are remaining relatively steady.  Essentially, employers are not hiring or firing in great numbers.  The concern for mortgage investors with these numbers are that the hopes for lower rates and higher bond prices (rate and price move in opposite directions) lies in deteriorating economic conditions which cause the Fed to hold off on raising rates.  Economic conditions that are flat to slightly improving, in the eyes of bond investors, will trigger Fed rate increases (if not now then in the short to medium term future).  Tomorrow's May non-farm payroll report will be watched closely.  Analysts are expecting the report to show a decline of 55,000 jobs.  A decline of less than 40,000 jobs or an increase could cause an additional spike in rates. 

Posted by Matthew Breston on June 5th, 2008 12:04 PMPost a Comment (0)

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