Market Analysis

This morning has produced high volatility for both stocks and bonds.  Stocks  opened the day with a strong rally, with the Dow moving up 100 pts at the start of trading on several better than expected economic data points including 1) a higher 3rd estimate for 2nd Qtr US GDP, which came in at 1.7% growth vs the 1.6% growth from the prior estimate; 2) lower Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended 9/25 which came in at 453,000,4,000 lower than the 457,000 analysts had expected; and 3) a stronger than expected September Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) which came in with a reading of  60.4 vs expectations for 56.0 and 56.7 for August. Also in the morning's news were reports that AIG has agreed in principle on a plan which puts them on a road towards paying back the US tax payers for their bailout.  Bonds opened the day flat and then experienced strong selling pressue on the Chicago PMI news.  Then, in mid morning trading, stocks reversed course with the Dow moving from up 100 to down 50.  Bonds recovered some of the lost ground but remain in negative territory with the 10 yr Treasury yield bumping back up over 2.5%.  The turn around in stocks does not appear to be tied to any economic data releases.  It is possible that as the Dow approached 11,000 automatic selling occurred to take profits off the table. 

Posted by Matthew Breston on September 30th, 2010 10:48 AMPost a Comment (0)

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