Market Analysis

It is a good sign at least for today that the bond market is able to open in positive territory despite economic news releases that were better than expected today.  At this point, analysts are only projecting a short term reprieve from what some believe will be a move up by approx 1% in the next 12-18 months to the 5.75% level sometime in 2012.  Whereas timing the market for locks was relatively easy over the past 6 months, the coming months will be more complicated.  A morning like today that is a reprieve from heavy selling pressure could easily be followed by heavy selling and visa versa. 

In economic news, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended 12/4 came in at 421,000 which was better than the 429,000 expected.  In unadjusted data, Texas led the way of states with lower claims. Our initial claims were down 8,742 from the prior week.  Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended 11/27 came in at 4.086 million vs expectations for a 4.240 million figure.  One interesting note is that the Continuing Claims data only reflects the regular unemployment program.  Those on extended benefits are not counted. According to the Labor Dept press release today the total number of people claiming benefits in all unemployment programs for the week ending Nov. 13 was 8,297,938.  In other economic news this morning Wholesale Inventories for October were up 1.9% which was better than the .7% expected increase.