Market Analysis

January 23rd, 2008 8:43 PM
Market notes:   What a swing.  We started the morning with the 10 yr Treasury up 31/32 and rates at all time lows (the rate sheet that could never get published due to volatility that took over the market had a 30 year fixed with a loan size of $240,000 at 4.875% with .125 points and 5.0% with a .375 rebate).  We ended the day with the 10 yr Treasury down 51/32 (a swing of 82/32 from am to pm) and rate sheets about where we were yesterday, but with a bias towards opening worse tomorrow  unless something good happens early tomorrow.  Wells Fargo's afternoon rate sheet is the most aggressive (lowest rates) of the investors we track.  So, what happened?  Most people point to the good news surrounding the bond insurers Ambac and MBIA.  New York state regulators appear to be working with large banks to assist these bond insurers to raise capital to shore up their credit ratings.  Additionally, the market had a day to digest the Fed rate cut and its impact on the economy.  The financial sector and home builders rallied on speculation that they have been "oversold" particularly in light of the aggressive move by the Fed.  The reality is that the "fear" that has plagued the holders of equities took hold of the holders of bonds today.  This is a market to watch closely.  If the momentum turns, it will be sudden and most likely do damage over the course of the next several days rather than weeks.

Posted by Matthew Breston on January 23rd, 2008 8:43 PMPost a Comment (0)

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