Market Analysis

The bond market worsened slightly today but the impact is not seen in our rate sheets. If it does not improve in the morning, we will most likely see slightly worse rate sheets tomorrow. The Dow spent most of the day up above the 9800 level but ended the day up 76 points to 9789. This week's economic calendar is listed below. The big events for this week will be the Fed’s post meeting statement on Wednesday and October’s Non Farm Payroll Report on Friday.

Monday, November 02

September Construction Spending – moved up .8% vs expectations for a decline of .2%. August had been up .8%. Year over year spending is still down 13.0%.

October Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Index – increased to 55.7 which was better than the 53.0 analysts had been expecting and the 52.6 in September

September Pending Home Sales – moved up 6.1% vs up 6.4% in August.

Tuesday, November 03

September Factory Orders – expected up 1% vs August down .8%

Wednesday, November 04

October Institute of Supply Management Service Sector Index – expected 51.6 vs September 50.9

ADP employment estimate – expected job losses of 190,000 for October in this report.

Fed concludes two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting and issues policy statement – analysts will be watching carefully to see if the Fed changes their statement regarding keeping rates low for a “considerable” period of time.

Thursday, November 05

Initial jobless claims for the week ended 10/31 – expected down 6,000

3^rd Quarter Productivity and Unit Labor Costs – productivity expected up 5.5% vs 2^nd Qtr up 6.6%. Unit labor costs expected down 4.5% vs 2^nd Qtr down 5.9%.

Friday, November 06

October Nonfarm Payroll Report – expected job losses of 175,000, with the unemployment rate moving up to 9.9% vs last month 9.8% and the avg work week at 33.1 hrs vs last month 33.0 hrs.

September Wholesale Inventories – expected down 1% vs August down 1.3%.